Is Climate Change Past Repair?
By Anna Prusak
This last month was recorded as the hottest January ever, according to the European Union Climate Monitor. With a daily sea surface temperature of around 69 degrees Fahrenheit and temperatures above average across eastern Canada, Northwestern Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, the world has begun to approach a significant warming threshold. The 2015 Paris Agreement set a limit of global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average temperature of the industrial time period. Most climate scientists hold that we are now about 1.3 degrees Celcius above the average. While it is not yet time to declare failure, the trend is not encouraging.
The world appears to be on track to be 2.5 degrees warmer by 2100. This prospect can be credited to the four largest emitters of carbon dioxide equivalents: the United States, China, India, and the European Union. At the Paris Agreement in 2015, each of those four parties pledged to steer climate change in the right direction.
Currently, China leads the world in emissions at above 14 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, and it would have to eliminate about 50 percent of its emission to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Most of the country’s emissions have been produced in the last two decades, but China has made strides to develop one of the world’s largest renewable energy projects. Accordingly, China’s emissions are expected to plummet after 2025, but the country has not agreed to release an update to its reduction pledges since 2022.
The United States currently produces about 6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year. In order to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and remaining below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the U.S. would need to eliminate about 25 percent of its emissions. While the U.S. is the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gasses, with the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law in 2022, the country is predicted to emit between 5 and 6 billion metric tons by 2030.
The European Union now emits about 3.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year, and it would need to cut down emissions by about 25 percent in order to meet the Paris Climate goal. The E.U.’s emissions are projected to hover between 3.5 and 3 billion metric tons by 2030. Unfortunately, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has altered the global fossil fuel market, which has led prices to skyrocket and Europeans to scramble for new sources of power. Despite this complication, the E.U. is the closest of the four major polluters to achieving its pledge.
Lastly, India emits about 3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year, but this number is steadily increasing. As the world’s fastest developing populous country, India would have to drastically reverse its track and eliminate about 25 percent of its current emissions to reach its pledge. That does not appear likely.
It may be that climate change will need to be combatted through a combination of reduction in emissions and technological innovations. Scientists have proposed building the prototype of a giant sunshade to deploy in space to block solar radiation from the Earth. It sounds strange, but it may be necessary for life as we know it to survive.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/climate/global-warming-dangerous-threshold.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/climate/2024-hottest-january-data.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/climate/sun-shade-climate-geoengineering.html